One of the most common excuses for doing nothing about the issue of sustainability is that "its not me - its them".
China and India are often cited as being the major cause of pollution / climate change etc due to their very large populations and increasing demand for resources.
Of course this is quite true - but there is another interesting way of slicing the cake. James Hansen is a climatologist working for Nasa - see link and has published a lot of data on the subject. In terms of responsibility it is possible to look at how many resources an individual in any one country takes today
The curve makes those of us living in Europe feel quite smug. Especially in my native UK.
Before we go back to our everyday existence safe in the knowledge its not us - its them - it is worth looking at how many resources you use individually. i.e how many resources per person are used?
All of a sudden it is not so comfortable reading for those of us in the west.
However - the historical picture - from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution to today tells a different and interesting story. So we Brits should feel some extra responsibility for leading the way - as our current standard of living is a result of chewing our way through a hell of a lot of fossil fuels through the years. So maybe we should take the lead after all...?
Ever heard of the Carterets Islands? Me neither - until tonight that is. I just returned from a really excellent talk by a BBC journalist Dan Box who won a Royal Geographical Society travel award to go on a journey of a lifetime and report back. Check out his blog here
The Cartarets (near Papua New Guinea) are becoming famous as the "poster island" for rising sea levels - being the first place where an entire population is going to be evacuated because the island is disappearing / sinking.
The talk was interesting and informative - but best of all - free from soap box preaching or unsubstantiated fact. It really was balanced.
The picture here of the island beach tells the story well
The tree stump in the sea should not be there - trees do not grow in salt water. Locals report the sea level has reduced the width of their island by 30 m to only 200 m within a generation. Interestingly that's about 400 mm. Natural sinking of the atol accounts for approx 50 mm and global warming (mainly expansion of the ocean) accounts for maybe another 100 mm. The difference is thought to be due to erosion of the land by increased storm activity.
The long term future for the islands is pretty much certain - they're a goner. Dan presents the story as a "lessons learnt" excercise. There are currently 8000 people who will eventually need to be evacuated. This started with a government program - but the funds appear to have disappeared in corruption. Now the families themselves have taken matters into their own hands and have sent 5 fathers to the mainland to set up home and eventually bring the first families over. The issue is not just that the land mass is decreasing. These people live (sustainably) by fishing and growing fruit and vegetables. These gardens are increasingly diminishing as they are being poisoned by sea water in tidal floods and ground water contamination.
A few things I took from the talk
- The Carterets are far from being the only ones. Evacuations have already started elsewhere
- Despite 8000 people being a relatively small number - it is incredibly difficult to move them even though it is within their own country. Why?
- the place they want to go to already has people - they do not want 8000 extra mouths to feed
- the migration must be slow and sustainable to avoid a refugee type situation
- the islanders live a cash free existence - so they have no money to set up
- there is a large culture shock as they will have to quickly change from subsistence living to getting jobs
- This is on the easy end of the Spectrum. Imagine what it will be like when the numbers increase to tens and hundreds of thousands
What was not clear from the talk is - what can be done to help the islanders in their evacuation and on the world stage - what can be done.
Again it seems clear that the first step is education and changing attitudes - as without this - nothing can change
The following three cartoons are the reason I decided to start this blog. They explain very simply the fundamental issue. Unless we change what we are doing - the human race can not be sustained.
The earth is a very simple, yet very elegant machine. It has been operating for many millions of years. The natural cycle is represented above. Low density energy from the sun is converted indirectly into plants. These are eaten by creatures in the food chain. The waste products of the food chain (including the creatures themselves) eventually are converted back into plant matter. Organic material from excess dead plants and animals is stored as high density energy over millions of years in the form of coal, oil and gas. The cycle is sustainable when the amount of plants, creatures, nutrients etc are in balance. A key step to focus on is that the waste products of the creatures are recycled into nutrients and hence food for the creatures. The recycling takes time and requires a low density of waste.
Human beings lived in the above way (replace the bunny) for many many thousands of years (until 300 or so years ago). This subsistence living meant hunting and foraging. Populations densities were low. Populations increased when farming methods were developed and captive creatures were farmed. However, fundamentally - the same pattern held. Waste products used in building and living were mostly degradable and hence formed part of the cycle.
The industrial revolution - for the first time - saw the stored energy (coal, oil, gas) being dug up for a ready source of high density energy.
Today, and for the last two hundred years humans have been augmenting the low density energy received from the sun with stored energy from fossil fuels. Regarding the food cycle, humans have used the high density stored energy to create food more efficiently. In addition, other finite resources such as minerals have been mined using the coal and oil to further increase crop yields. This has allowed the population to increase dramatically compared to the levels that could be sustained without fossil fuels. Note, however, that the cycle is no longer balanced as the waste from the larger population can not be converted back into fossil fuels at the same rate as they are being extracted. At this stage it does not seem to be a huge problem.
The last cartoon points out that the same cycle applies to everything we do (not just food) and (for me at least) shows the problem in a clearer way.
Not only are fossil fuels and stores of minerals being used to help grow food, they are used for everything else that goes with modern life. The fossil fuels are so energy rich, it has been possible to manufacture all sorts of goods. When we are finished with these goods, they are being dumped as waste. In principle these could be converted back into stored fuel. But not at the rate they are being dug up. The cycle is broken.
A final point is that despite the huge efficiencies in modern farming utilizing fossil fuels and mineral deposits, it has still been necessary to turn almost all of the earth's land surface over to supplying food for the human race. Ironically, in doing that, humans are reducing the capacity of the earth to turn waste material back into food as the delicate mechanism of the cycles are being destroyed. We are heading for a downwards spiral.
Sustainability is the capacity to endure. If the human race is to endure, it will have to work out how to balance the cycle again. That means being able to live off the low density energy of the sun without dependence on stored fossil fuels. We do not know when the finite resources of fossil fuels and minerals will run out. But run out they must - one day. It would be comforting to think that a technological solution will allow future waste products to be recycled for fuel. If not, there is always the age old fall back of using the earth and its biological recycling to do the job for us. We will just have to be mindful that it is not designed to recycle the fossil fuel generated waste from many billions of people, and it has to be healthy to do so.
